Habs Have Interest in Trading for Evander Kane (e3)
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05-13-2012, 02:30 PM
Join Date: Apr 2012
Originally Posted by
So what your saying is that sine there are currently 5 active players that shot above 17% Kuli can be the 6th. Out of the active players on NHL rosters 20*30= 600 players or so there are currently 5 so that's what 0.83% of active players..... yes you are right there is a chance that Kuli can shot CONSISTENTLY over 17% but given that less than 1% of active NHL players do that is there really that much to get excited about? You are completely right he could all of a sudden start firing an additional 75 shots at the net, but the guys that all of a sudden start doing that at the end of their goal scoring prime are almost completely non existent. Again you are identifying the statistical anomalies and assuming that Kuli will be one of them, this is generally not the best idea when trying to evaluate a player they are called anomalies for a reason.
Kuli does have comparable stats through 3 years but given the lucky year he had in 2010/11 and the fact that those where his age 22,23,24 seasons there is a clear difference between the 2 players. They are not comparable not at all.
Finally you still fail to understand the principle of leverage and comparable's in a deal, the Jets are a club that is 4 years into a 6-8 year rebuilding process, they have no need to trade Kane no need at all. The fact that the Leafs picks were projected to be worse holds no weight what so ever the price is set if Phil Kessel got a 2nd and 8th the Jets can now demand that price as that is the comparable deal. Would the Canadians pay that price? I would hope not for their sake but the Jets have no reason to demand anything less. Put yourself in the Jets GM shoes and ask yourself if you had a player with 4 years of team control, no cap issues and no need to take a step back in the rebuild why would you ever trade him for less than what the last player in almost the exact same situation got? You would be undermining your negotiating position in any further trade talks by taking a lesser deal in this situation. Again this trade is ridiculous because the Kessel trade has failed so miserably that no GM will ever pay the price again, and no current GM has any reason to ask for less than the return that Kessel brought. Perhaps in the future the landscape will change and the price for elite young goal scores with ether lower, or opposing GM's will be willing to pay the higher price but at this point I can't see it.
Since the active players that are shooting at that level have varying offensive capabilities which Kulemin is in the range of, and Kulemin has already shown that he can sustain that level over a season when given the opportunities, yes, it is not unreasonable to think that he can be one of those players.
However, as I said, he doesn't have to. He shot 173 times with 17 minutes TOI. Most 1st line players get at least 20 minutes, which would put his shots over 200 if he changed nothing. Which means that he wouldn't even need a 15% shooting percentage to reach 30 goals. It is also not unreasonable to think that he could improve his shot totals beyond his 4th year in the league (I don't know why you think he is past his goal-scoring prime), or when he gets better line-mates and team-mates around him.
So Kulemin had a lucky season in 2010/2011, and Kane is all skill? Nice double-standard.
Phil Kessel resulted in a 2nd overall and 9th overall (nice research there), but that was not what he was traded for. The standard set is two likely non-playoff picks (and a second round pick). Since the one pick by Montreal is already known, and is known to be on the extremely high end, it improves the offer past the one that Kessel got. Pretty significantly too. You are taking away all risk for one of the picks, which holds significant value.
I understand that needs of the team come into play as well, and that is why I don't believe either team would make this trade (as I have said multiple times), but if a trade was going down for whatever reason, it is more than fair value.
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