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05-18-2012, 07:37 PM
A soupçon of nutmeg
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Join Date: Aug 2003
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Originally Posted by SaskRinkRat View Post
I'm wondering if anyone feels like humouring me through the following scenario I've been conjuring up:

I wonder what kind of premium there would be on trading down from #3 to the #6 range? I ask because I'm sort of seeing teams preferences as follows:

Oilers - Defenceman
Jackets - Forward
Habs - Forward
Islanders - Defenceman
Leafs - Forward
Ducks - Defenceman

One scenario I could see playing out is that the Oilers take Yakupov (even though they'd prefer a d-man) and then the Blue Jackets take the next best forward (probably one of Forsberg or Galchenyuk). That leaves us with the next pick with everyone's favourite d-man still on the board (be it Murray, Dumba, Reilly, whoever).

The Habs could realistically be considering a d-man right now (BPA), and the Ducks would see that if that happens, they're likely getting stuck with the 3rd d-man selected (because the Islanders will draft one as well). The Habs, meanwhile, figure the Isles are taking a d-man, know the Ducks would take one if they traded up to #3, and so the only forward likely to go between pick 3 and 5 is to the Leafs and #5.

It could very realistically go something like this:

Oilers - Yakupov
Jackets - Forsberg
Ducks - Murray / Dumba / Reilly / Trouba
Islanders - Murray / Dumba / Reilly / Trouba
Leafs - Grigorenko / Galchenyuk / Teravainen

And that would leave the Habs with 5 out of the following 7 players to choose from:


If you remove any two of those players, there is still a lot of talent there to choose from.

I'm more of a philosopher than a scout, so I have to keep things abstract, but I think your scenario is possible if a guy like Rielly happens to be very high on Timmins' list. My sense, for whatever that is worth, is that Rielly is a guy who could be real high on Timmins' list.

Let's say for argument's sake that the list has Yakupov and Galchenyuk at 1 and 2, both are gone, and Rielly is at 3. The Kings were in love with Hickey, and just took him, as did Phoenix with Wheeler. That's one approach. But maybe, if presented an opportunity to slide down a few spots and pick up some other stuff for the trouble, the Habs would take a calculated risk that the intervening teams would have other players on their list.

And as a failsafe, as you point out, there are still going to be some decent prospects no matter how the top 5 or 6 ultimately shakes down.

Going into the draft, as an armchair GM, part of the fun is arguing about who the Habs should take at 3rd overall, but the other fun is trying to guess Timmins' list, which actually matters a lot more to the Habs. We've seen that it isn't always what the consensus from the published services say. He was beaming after the McDonagh selection because he had him somewhere around 6th or 7th overall. He had Ellis pretty high too, and even it was left to Gainey, according to internet legend, whether to take Staal or Price at 5th.

All of that to say -- I wouldn't be surprised if the Habs trade down at the draft.

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