Thread: Speculation: FINAL: Where does Nash end up?
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05-23-2012, 11:53 AM
  #272
Mayor Bee
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
My point simply being people like to point to Nash's 45 goal season was years ago, so was Marleau's. Neither is doing that now and you need to look at what they are both doing today, not what they did years ago. However, even if you take the 'best season' logic, Marleau is still basically equal.
Fair enough.

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Nash is a notorious floater, I've heard CBJ fans say so themselves numerous times. Pavelski would never be described as a floater.
The opinion of the fans doesn't make it true.

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That is pretty weak logic. Pavelski was #1 in PK ice time, #3 for PP ice time, #1 for defensive zone starts. No coach would 'choose' not to put Pavelski on the PK because he's excellent at it, that tells you something right there. I'm not saying Nash is bad defensively, but he's not in Pavelski's league.
Pavelski has an added bonus because of his faceoff skill; possession in a PK situation is fairly important, so he'll be out there to take the draw. And obviously no coach is going to say, "Win the draw, then come to the bench".

With Nash not taking faceoffs, his PK time is going to more reliant on whether he can do it. Here's an article that discusses Arniel's reluctance to use Nash on the PK:
http://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/conte...l-limited.html

Two stats that stand out:
In 2007-08, Nash was 5th in the NHL in shorthanded goals (CBJ were 9th in PK). In 2008-09, he was 2nd (CBJ were 13th). Arniel came in in 2010-11, removed Nash off the PK, and the team dropped to 22nd. After two months of the 2011-12 season, Columbus was not only sitting dead last, but the PK% was something like 68%. And through it all, Arniel still never adjusted; Nash's PK time under Arniel totaled less than 40 minutes in 123 games.

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Again, that's in the past. Right now Pavelski is producing at the same rate as Nash and I find no reason to believe Nash would miracously produce at a greater rate on the Sharks. That simply isn't supported by history. Pavelski also technically out-produced him last season because he had the same points in less games. Pavelski gets more ice time than Nash mainly because of his PK time. Even so, Pavelski saw slightly more ES TOI than Nash, on such a 'vastly superior' team why is Pavelski seeing so much ice time? Why would Nash get MORE ice time in San Jose? He wouldn't, he has to share the ice with better players, and share the puck with better players, and those things tend to even out. Even if Nash did have some amazing season in San Jose it would likely be cannibalizing points from someone else and the net total would be about the same for the team. The system has a bigger effect on total team scoring (especially on an already high talent team) than another big star player does.
Part of it goes back to Arniel again. In 41 games this year, I think Nash led the forwards in ice time only 9 times. For the sake of comparison, Sammy Pahlsson led the forwards a couple of times, and those were in games where there was almost no PK time. The guy simply had no idea how to put the best or most effective players on the ice. What I mentioned before about Clitsome and Russell getting PK minutes is true, and both of them make Phil Housley look stout in his own end.

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Face-offs lead to possession, possession leads to wins. Are you implying you don't care if your team wins a defensive zone face off with 30 seconds left with a 1 goal lead? Of course you want them to win, because Face-offs are huge. That's why teams go out and bring in guys like Malhotra. Now, yes, you are correct, apparently Pavelski dropped out of 1st at some point near the end of the season, I wasn't aware of that, he was in 1st for the majority of the season, I didn't realize Toews and Bergeron passed him barely.
I don't remember saying that, or suggesting it. You're bringing up one specific situation and adding weight to it. I'm using a general all-encompassing situation, which is "a faceoff".

The simple reality is that the gap between the best and worst faceoff men in the league isn't that significant. It's not like free throws in the NBA, where there are guys who shoot 50% and guys who shoot 90%. The best faceoff men in the league are around 59%, and the worst are around 45%. Within any given faceoff, neither one of them legitimately has a clear advantage. That's why there's all these bizarre outlier games, where someone might be 20/26 on faceoffs, or 3/15.

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Just pointing out something Pavelski does better. Nash hits better for instance, which people love to point out.
No one uses that argument, because it's not what either of their game revolves around, and it's barely a "minor" part of either one. It's slightly more important than faceoff skill for defensemen, and slightly less important than shooting percentage while shorthanded.

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