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05-27-2012, 06:13 PM
Rich Nash
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Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
They will miss by 10+ games.

Dickey's WHIP is way above his career normals.

David Wright won't have a .500 OBP all year long.

Miguel Batista's run won't last long.

Santana will get injured.

The bullpen is really bad. Jon Rauch and Francisco and very bad pitchers. Just skim through the Blue Jay threads last year on what they thought of those two.
The bullpen has been playing really bad, but they're actual not "very bad" pitchers. They're average relievers who are a significant upgrade over our bullpen last year.

If Wright reverts to EXACTLY his career normals starting tomorrow, he'd still average an .850 OPS. All his peripherals are closer to what they were when he was a 7 WAR player. His BABIP is very high and will revert, but unless he suddenly becomes a giant scrub and is even WORSE than he was the last two years, he'll still have a superstar season.

Santana getting injured would basically ruin our chances, or if we flip him for a top prospect ala Tron for Wheeler, but you can't assume he'll get injured.

And what run is Miguel Batista on? He's awful.

It's also hard to use Dickey's "career norms" when his actual career is really only 3 years long, unless that's what you did.

I agree with you, I don't think they'll make the PO's, but they should be in contention for a while. Only really alarming thing is our run differential, which might catch up to us eventually.

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