Luongo Trade Value
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06-07-2012, 12:45 AM
Join Date: Aug 2008
Originally Posted by
I chose moderate but I don't have a clue. His salary is one of the highest in the league for his position, and his cap hit, while not nearly as bad, continues forever.
He is year in and year out among the league leaders in most statistical categories for the regular season, but it has been 5 years since his playoff numbers were impressive.
Does a $70 million cap mean his salary is no big deal, especially if the Leafs can move some other unproductive salary? Really, once his game goes south and they are still carrying that hit, they are not hurting any worse than today with Finger/Komi/Tucker on the books. If they can just avoid assembling another LACK they can handle the salary without much of a stretch.
Do they want to fix their goaltending situation badly enough to take him on in spite of Schneider beating him out of a job? The high cost may be absorbable but that still doesn't make it appealing, because if he takes another step down he may get his ass shot off in TO, and he will take BB with him. Funny things happen to goalies in Toronto. Is it automatic that he will have a .915 sv% or better next year for the Leafs?
2010-11 Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 33 0 4 1633 78 5 0 2.87 11 11 4 699 0.900
2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 34 0 0 1879 97 2 3 3.10 14 14 4 877 0.900
2011-12 Colorado Avalanche NHL 32 0 2 1820 69 4 2 2.28 15 11 3 781 0.918
2011-12 Vancouver Canucks NHL 55 1 4 3162 127 2 5 2.41 31 14 8 1450 0.919
It would make sense if he stays in Vancouver until the new CBA. Gillis will keep him if the offers are weak because the new CBA is more likely make things better than worse. I know as a buyer I would not want to pay a premium on the assumption that the CBA will provide some kind of relief, and then not get it so my offers would be conservative.
If BB and a few other GMs feel he is that rock in net (playoffs be damned, that was the teams fault) and they can deal with the cap carnage in a few years(esp if they expect the cap to continue to rise) then he will get a return more in line with his regular season achievements. This means they may eat a year or two of bad money at worst but they will some quality in the return, and that means not "moderate" as per this poll. If other clubs are scared by the money/term and there are few bidders, and if his failure to produce in the playoffs has earned him a label then the Canucks need to take what they can get and enjoy the huge cap relief.
To guess his worth we need to know whether Burkes interest is strictly in a soft deal and how motivated Gillis is to get cap room to use this summer. Tampa, Florida, TO and Columbus are the buyers I see based on current need. Rumor has it Tampa is out because they already have Vinny's anchor, that Florida only wants him for dirt cheap, and Howson may not be allowed to pursue him (nor would he likely want to go there) so a narrow field of partners. Maybe just Burke and Tallon, and that means not much of a bidding war.
How do we actually know if the Leafs are even interested? Second hand inferences made by some sports writers because he appears to be a fit? Samjam99? I thought Nonis reference to taking a cap circumventing deal had to be Luongo related and then somebody posted an old comment by Burke from a year ago where he said the same thing. Gillis said he has had no discussions and Burke said "There has not been significant discussion (with the Canucks) on that player," so the only truth may be a casual inquiry like "is your guy on the market?" which means nothing.
Nonis May 25th: “From a Leafs standpoint, we need to make sure that we backfill and have some depth there so that we have some quality goaltenders to pick from,” Nonis told Brady & Lang. “Yes, we’ll look at (unrestricted free agency), we’ll probably jump in for a couple pieces, but overall we’re going to approach the trade market as a primary source of improvement.”
Burke from April: "The goaltending wasn’t good enough this year, I think James Reimer is the real deal, I think we can still plan on him being the number one guy, but we have to look at a guy who gives us more options and performances right from the get-go next year."
From above I would say they are looking for another guy with some solid credentials, not a home run Luongo/Kipper so until I see some more evidence I am going to assume Josh Harding or Niemi at absolute most are a lot more likely. Right now Lu seems to be worth whatever Tallon will pay.
Giggy was damaged goods before he came to Toronto.
If Luongo comes to town there is a good chance Reimer is gone by next years deadline provided Scrivens is tearing apart the AHL again.
Paying a backup 1.8 million per year is a lot especially when you've already got a +5 million starter. Plus Reimer could bring other assets in return.
Everybody understands that Luongo is an elite goalie now. But the list of once elite goalies whose careers fell off a cliff in their mid to late 30s is very long.
Belfour, Cujo, Kolzig, Richter, Burke, Fuhr, Vanbiesbrouck, Barasso
The only modern goalie I can think of who was an above average starter who joined the NHL at a young age and was good till he was 40 is Brodeur.
Thomas and oldman Rolly don't count cause there bodies hadn't taken as much wear and tear because of how late their NHL careers started.
The next few years 33-36/37 the Luongo contract isn't much of a risk but it's the 36/37-40 part that scares teams. The last 3 years are retirement years.
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