2012 CBJ Offseason Part II (Proposals? Speculation? Blog Rumors? Right here.)
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06-07-2012, 10:01 PM
Join Date: Dec 2008
Originally Posted by
Kind of hard to have a discussion with someone who always changes the point. I am not comparing the two just trying to see if you would ever trade the #2 for a goalie.
Would you ever spend the #2 on a goalie?
Would you trade the #2 even up for a signed Schneider?
Would you trade the #2 straight up for Quick?
Answers allowed are yes or no.
I just think that sometimes you have to think outside of the box. If you truly build a team from the goal out, how do you not consider taking (trading for) a potential 10 year starting goalie (based on his limited NHL experience) over an 18 or 19 year old kid who may or may not bust.
Granted Schneider may be the next Mason, but he could be the next Brodeur too. Risk/reward. Lots of highly ranked forwards come out every year. Not so with goalies.
To spend the #2 pick on
, he'd damn well better have about a 90% chance of being a perennial All-Star player. If that potential is not there, fall back and either accumulate picks or move it for someone who does have that potential (or is there already). Standing pat at #2 and picking someone who tops out at even a half-notch below All-Star level isn't something I would do.
In the case of Schneider, who has the only emphatic answer from me in this scenario, it's very simple. I don't think he's proved any more at the NHL level than any of a number of other more lightly-regarded goalies have. I think he's overrated for two reasons:
1) He's in Vancouver, and
2) He's backing up a perennial whipping boy in Luongo. Vancouver fans went through years of a Dan Cloutier/Alex Auld combo, where every save was an adventure and every shot stood a good chance of ending up in the back of the net.
This year, there were 10 goalies
than Schneider who saw a decent amount of action. Those are Carey Price, Ondrej Pavelec, Semyon Varlamov, Devan Dubnyk, Steve Mason, Michal Neuvirth, James Reimer, Sergei Bobrovsky, Tuukka Rask, and Jhonas Enroth. Enroth is the only one who has less career games than Schneider, and Schneider is older than all of them.
Goalies who are both younger and played fewer than 20 games this year (and will be either backups or rotating starters next year) are Jonathan Bernier, Anders Lindback, Matt Hackett, Ben Bishop, Braden Holtby, Jacob Markstrom, Leland Irving, Robin Lehner, Dustin Tokarski, and Kevin Poulin. Every one of those guys is younger than Schneider.
So the real question isn't "how much should we shell out for Schneider", it's "what
separates Schneider from the rest of this pack of 20 goalies?" They're all younger, in some cases multiple years younger. When they're as old as what Schneider is now, will they be better, worse, or the same?
And then the other question is, where were these goalies drafted? Those aren't exactly a group of elite prospects coming into the league, with the exception of Carey Price. There are some late first-rounders in there, but a bunch who went late in the draft. That's in the last 6-7 years that all these guys were picked...so again, why Schneider?
Understand where I'm coming from. I'm in the midst of a project to compile all the expansion draft unprotected lists from 1991-2000, and part of that is digging through various shenanigans. Teams exposed players who had long since retired, and in some cases were actively coaching somewhere. They'd do the usual business of "take this guy, and we'll make it worth your while". So one thing I'm doing is being constantly reminded of exactly how comparable this situation is to Mike Dunham and Martin Brodeur in 1996 and 1997. 10 times, New Jersey put Dunham in net just to get him games played credits specifically for the 1998 expansion draft...5 of those appearances were for one single shift. It got nasty; there was talk of arbitration and of lawsuits because of how New Jersey was doing this. Finally the league got fed up and adjusted the expansion draft rules to basically force Dunham to be eligible, and he was taken by Nashville. His career didn't come close to what was expected; he was decent, but not much more than that.
Now, would you give up a #2 overall pick in any draft to get a goalie who's merely serviceable?
Oh, and I forget...at the time of the expansion draft, Dunham was younger than what Schneider is right now.
Last edited by Mayor Bee: 06-07-2012 at
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