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06-08-2012, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Valrico Gold View Post
Always enjoy the NY Post handicappers analysis. The best in NY.

No question the riders, led by Jerry Bailey, ganged up on Smarty Jones.
But that's making excuses for the lack of patience by Smarty's rider Stewart Elliott.

With Affirmed (1978), Steve Cauthen was mature far beyond his years. He was the dominant rider in NY at the time, and displayed great patience in waiting for Alydar to come to him.
Jean Cruguet (Seattle Slew, 1977) was on a superior animal. No questions about that.
Ron Turcotte (Secretariat, 1973) was also on a superior animal against a small field.

No such combinations for tomorrow's race.
And another problem for I'll Have Another. The forecast indicates a good chance of a wet track tomorrow. This may have a significant impact on the race (as usual).

My belief is that Dullahan (Castellano) is getting far too much backing from the handicappers.
I could be wrong, but slow closers usually fair poorly in the Belmont Stakes.

The picks for a track without standing water.
Union Rags
I'll Have Another
Street Life

For a track with standing water.
Union Rags
I'll Have Another
Street Life
I think what happens is we've been accustomed to something going wrong in these rare instances when a horse can win the Triple Crown so the next step is to figure out who - besides the favorite - will win and why. It is easy to finger Dullahan as the culprit especially because Castellano is (at last look) the top rider in the nation based on 2012 stats and he is on his own turf. But, of course, the talent level of these animals is much superior.

Union Rags could be a play, and like Dullahan gets a new jock (Johnny V.) I wouldn't be surprised if My Adonis on the outside has a good ride but that is a ballsy pick to select him the winner.

Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 06-08-2012 at 10:53 AM. Reason: "accustomed" typo
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