View Single Post
Old
06-14-2012, 11:48 AM
  #32
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 62,843
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrence View Post
I lol'd.

As far as the lottery goes, I'd rather have a full season of hockey than hang my hopes on a ~6% chance on 1st overall, assuming no rules are changed.
2 of the past 3 seasons including the last one just completed, the Leafs finished among the bottom 5 worst teams. So considering our Leafs are currently among the worst teams, and the entry draft rewards failure by handing out draft picks in reverse order of final standings, then lets look at this big picture here.

If it takes a full season lost and balls in lottery to earn a 6% chance at a top pick, than based on Leafs actual past on ice performance as a outcome of actually playing the games, the odds of picking higher in the draft might even be greater.

Quote:
Odds of Winning the 1st Overall Pick - Final Standings

48.2% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
Case in point .. The Leafs finished 5th last overall and had a 8.1% odds of winning the draft lottery and picking 1st overall, where as a season long lockout would give them a 6% chance .. Since 8.1% > 6% therefore playing games > sitting out games (as far as winning lottery odds are concerned).

__________________
Signature: There is no greater demonstration of Fan patience then to suggest to "Play the Kids " and be willing to accept the consequences of those actions..
Mess is offline   Reply With Quote