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06-15-2012, 12:39 AM
  #733
Mayor Bee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
Now, come on--injury and Mono are not the same. Injuries can be a sign of a propensity to injury--Pascal LeClaire. They can also have lasting effects if they don't heal properly. And then there are head injuries, which create a whole new risk in the modem NHL. Mono may slow a player's development, but some of that is on the kid to push himself to get back into things ASAP.

Sorry, but Svitov had a lot of problems. I'm not convinced conscription was the sole reason he didn't pan out. Different sport, but serving his country did not ruin David Robinson.

People are still talking Galchenyuk at #2 with an injury that could reoccur or have lasting effects. So, Couture's drop that year now appears wholly unwarranted by comparison.
None of that is really the point. Mono may be unlikely to recur, but my point was that losing a ton of time in his draft year (or playing a bunch at 60%) can mask the fact that a player simply is not that good.

I mentioned Nick Ebert being a top-5 prospect coming into this year. Jordan Schmaltz was another guy who was talked about as a top-10 prospect, and Martin Frk in the top-15 (after two years of being hyped as a possible #1 overall). Neither one of them is on the radar at all right now....Frk is a possible second-rounder, Schmaltz is projected as a late third-rounder at best, and Ebert has been buried so deep that The Hockey News can't even find him. He's the 96th-rated North American skater, which may put him into the 6th round by the time it's all said and done. His fall mirrors Seth Ambroz last year.

My question is how clairvoyant someone is supposed to be when they're drafting or not drafting someone who has missed time or been restricted. And then there's the natural cycle of overanalysis. I did some digging a couple weeks ago and found a treasure trove of old in-season draft previews going back to 2003...somehow I didn't bookmark it or save anything, and I can't find them again. But what I most remember is needing hockeydb.com to find out who some of these guys were. And I don't mean that I wanted to find out what they were doing now, I mean that I simply did not remember their careers.

For Galchenyuk, it's important to note two things. The first is that orthopedic science progresses at a staggering rate, and he apparently showed no ill effects during combine testing. The second is that his game wasn't predicated on speed in the first place. If he were Marian Gaborik, it would be another story entirely.

Every year, prospects rise and prospects fall. The fallers, particularly the highly-touted ones, may never have plummeted if they'd simply missed a bunch of time. And that means that some poor schlub would have taken John McFarland in the top-10, or J-P Levasseur, or Cory Emmerton, or Ben Shutron.

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