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06-16-2012, 02:31 PM
Jack de la Hoya
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
His point is that the factor of when a player breaks into the NHL is fairly overrated on HFBoards. (Then again, what isn't?)

The truth is that unless forwards are a rare breed, their development pattern in the NHL is normally as follows regardless of age as long as they are not like 24 or up when they first make the NHL. (There will obviously be exceptions, but I could definitely go and find many like cases for this. Remember I am discussing your average 1st round forward selection.)

Year 1: limited production, limited role
Year 3: much better production, second line role
Year 5: production as a true NHL vet, major role within organization

Age does not necessarily determine anything other than when the player is ready for the NHL. Normally they all go through the same process of adjusting to the size and speed of the game.

On top of that, JVR is a powerforward which is something that in general takes longer to develop because his game style is based on a foundation where he is bigger and stronger than his opponents.
Yeah, I understand, but if JVR is a powerforward, what would you call Kane? Both could benefit from a bit more "meanness" in their game, but otherwise they seem fairly similar. Kane could still afford to put on a bit of weight--but at 6'2 / 200 (and not yet 21), I don't think that's a stretch.

In other words, if two players have similar pedigrees, similar skill-sets, and similar playing styles, is it not reasonable to infer that the player who produced better at a younger age is a more valuable commodity?

For example, if your chart above is right, we should expect JVR to hit his baseline production next season (or perhaps the one that followed)--so around age 24-26. By the same logic, Kane will hit his baseline production next year or the year tat followed... at age 21-23.

If you assume the players carry that production through a similar age--e.g., their late 20s / early 30s (an unknown variable), then isn't it still likely that you will get "peak" production from the younger player for more years?

Basically, I'm looking for some explanation as to how we can reasonable expect JVR make significant advances in his development, but presume Kane will stagnate--I feel like I'm not following something here...

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