Thread: Value of: Erik Gudbranson to Pittsburgh
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06-19-2012, 06:01 AM
  #56
wej20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tender Rip View Post
It doesn't matter what I think the Pens can get for Staal, but relating to your question; Staal made a bigger impact in the NHL at an even younger age, while being drafted even higher and has gone on to cement himself as a consistent impact player in the league.

You have no idea how high Florida really are on Gudbranson, because him being traded hasn't been in question. If we just go by how team execs and PR people describe every new high pick, it'll seem like they have the keys to their teams respective futures, all of them.

I just read the same in what you say as I saw from Leafs fans after Schenn's rookie season (which - being one of few comparable draft picks though lower - was demonstrably better than Gudbranson's), and now Schenn's hype is entirely different as he hasn't had linear progression upwards. With primarily defensive D-men, that isn't atypical at all, as they aren't going to wow anyone with offensive production. Trade value wise, you just don't get as much for these guys and they're rarely good value picks high in the draft. See if you can find a precedent for a defensive D-man being picked in the top10 and proving a value pick? You can start out with Erik Johnson and Luke Schenn - or McIlrath from Gudbranson's draft year - and find yourself at Mike Komisarek back in 2001. There are precious few altogether, and I swear that not a single defensive D-man has been value for money as a top10 pick during this period. Well.... there is Ryan Suter in 2003.... but here we are talking about a two-way D-man who can play the point and QB a first unit power play. Not one where the draw is HITS! SIZE!

Sure - you can draft one anyway based on organizational need. That's like when Pittsburgh traded up to get Fleury, but then such a player has to pan out, and it is completely up in the air whether that is going to happen with Gudbranson.

From any rational point of view, his rookie season was very unspectacular. The only thing he proved is that he can hit. Which everyone knew already. He didn't show any offense, which was expected. And defensively Florida did worse with him on the ice than with any other regular Florida D-man, despite him playing some of the weakest opposition. In the playoffs opponents tried to match up against him - hence his higher QOC, and team worst CORSI.

Either way, forget about what Staal should bring. The point is that it would be idiotic for any GM to trade a young, current difference maker for as unproven and traditionally risky an asset as Gudbranson.
At least have him have a break out season that justifies your faith in him, before ascribing such value to him.
really well thought out argument TR.

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