Thread: Proposal: Ana-Columbus
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06-19-2012, 06:13 AM
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KEEROLE Vatanen's Avatar
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Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
#6 overall picks between 1995-2008

2008: Nikita Filatov
2007: Sam Gagner
2006: Derick Brassard
2005: Gilbert Brule
2004: Al Montoya
2003: Milan Michalek
2002: Scottie Upshall
2001: Mikko Koivu
2000: Scott Hartnell
1999: Brian Finley
1998: Rico Fata
1997: Daniel Tkaczuk
1996: Boyd Devereaux
1995: Steve Kelly

That's a big sample size. Fact: You're pretty darn lucky if you're ending up with a Mikko Koivu at #6, or even Milan Michalek or Scott Hartnell. Heck, if you end up with a Gagner or a Brassard at #6 you've done pretty well for yourself. You'll have to go back to the early 90's to find good players being selected at that position every year, and those were deep drafts (so many great players born in the early 70's).

I'd easily trade Holland and that pick for Krejci. Anyway you trade a pick, there's always a chance a great player ends up getting selected with that pick, but even if you had kept the pick, chances are 50/50 that you would have selected someone else. The chances for the #6 overall becoming a top six forward/top four defenseman, are probably around 30%. I have a difficult time believen a contender would trade one of the leagues best 2nd line centers for uncertainty.

Edit: 30% is probably a little off... Maybe 40%... Anyways, the chances of getting a player SIGNIFICANTLY better than Krejci at 6th is somewhere around 10-15%
you cant compare to soley no.6 picks, you got to compare to the pool of players available, and also which teams take them, it's not a coincidence alot of busts are selected by certain teams

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