Thread: Speculation: Columbus looking to move down
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06-21-2012, 06:35 PM
A soupçon of nutmeg
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It wouldn't surprise me at all if the teams holding the first 5 or 6 picks have very different top 5 lists. And not just ordering, but players too. For instance, I doubt the Habs have Reinhart in their top 5, but it seems that he's somewhere there for Edmonton. Then you have wildcards like Grigorenko and Teravainen, especially the latter, who could be anywhere in a team's top 10. Or, consensus top 5 guys like Forsberg and Galchenyuk could be anywhere from 2 to 5, maybe even 1 in Galchenyuk's case.

The unpredictability at the top makes it hard to trade down. It seems that there isn't lot of safety in banking on your guy being off the board at where you're supposed to pick, and thus likely to be available if you trade down just a few spots. Even guys like Rielly and Dumba, who are usually grouped in the second wave of top prospects, show up very high in some lists.

In terms of trading up and down, I think the top 3 teams at least are going to have to play their cards as dealt. Unless they're looking at a stupendous reach that no one has considered for even a second, then they're just going to have to go with their list. And if that produces a few surprises in the top 3 -- Yakupov slides, a non-Murray defenceman gets taken, or Teravainen goes ahead of Forsberg and Galchenyuk -- then that in turn could cause a scramble.

Basically, I don't predict any trades up or down until the 3rd pick is made. And to go back to the topic (the topic is really about Toronto, only ostensibly about Columbus), I think that potentially favours Burke.

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