Thread: Prospect Info: Last pick, #188 is....Louie Nanne
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06-24-2012, 12:58 AM
State of Hockey
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
We've addressed this already. A 3rd round pick is worth more than 5 times as much as a 7th round pick (round average for 3rd is approximately 15% for a 7th is about 3%). Furthermore, when rounds are broken into thirds instead of being taken as all 30, the rate in the top third of each round (excluding the first and seventh) approximately doubles. Meaning a pick taken in the first third of the third round has approximately a 25% to 30% chance of having an NHL career while a pick in the 7th still has a 3% chance.

To put that in perspective for you, in 33 years of drafting in the 7th round, you would on average draft 1 player who has an NHL career.
Well then let's address it again and get it right. The percentage of full-time NHLers who play for more than a couple years is nearly flat after the 2nd round (really about #50-60 is where most drafts become total crapshoots). I believe the numbers are around 10-15% for every round after the 2nd. A quick check of the past decade confirms that. You expect about 3-5 guys per round to make it and stick around. 3% is well below the true 7th round percentage of the past 10-15 years.

Look up every recent draft and start tallying:

Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
Which year?
In the past 15 years, 1999, 2000, and 2003 are three that win in either quantity or quality or both. Late rounders are still getting their feet wet from about 2005/6 and on, so those are all too young to declare a winner (like 2007 may go in favor of the 7th in the end).

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