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06-24-2012, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Actually, I have a first class honours undergraduate degree in mathematics and physics, I'll be getting a PhD in a few weeks, and I'll be making six figures next year in a technical job at age 28. I've tutored math and statistics to dozens of people, I've lectured on probability and statistics in a university, and I've turned down job offers from Wall Street. I get the relevant math just fine, thank you.

I don't blame you for not getting basic statistics -- most people don't. The point is, you can't assume the dice will roll you way every time even if you have a god shot on each individual roll. If you roll the dice many times, you will win some, and you will lose some.

If you roll two dice 36 times, you expect to get snake eyes once, not 36 times.
In that case, first let me thank you for taking the time out if your busy schedule to enlighten us. What, with the PhD studies, the tutoring, the lecturing, and the turning down of high profile job offers I'm sure that leaves you with little spare time.

Perhaps the question lies in the analysis rather than the statistics themselves. Let me try to re-frame things, in an acceptable fashion.

Re: the part which starts with shedding Gomez, if each of those favorable scenarios has a 50% chance of NOT happening, then the odds they'll all NOT happen is less than 1%. Hey, I'm good with that, looks like SOMETHING will get better, statistically speaking.

Re: the part which starts with Cole, if each if those unfavorable scenarios have a 70% chance of NOT happening, then surely, statistically, most will not happen. I like that too!!!

Things are looking up in Hab Land!! Statistically, at least?

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