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06-24-2012, 05:50 PM
  #1006
DAChampion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyB11 View Post
Perhaps the question lies in the analysis rather than the statistics themselves. Let me try to re-frame things, in an acceptable fashion.

Re: the part which starts with shedding Gomez, if each of those favorable scenarios has a 50% chance of NOT happening, then the odds they'll all NOT happen is less than 1%. Hey, I'm good with that, looks like SOMETHING will get better, statistically speaking.
Yes, that's totally true. We won't have each of those bad things happen again. However, we don't just need some improvement to go from 15th place to 6th place -- we need a lot of improvements.

Meanwhile, you expect that some of the things that went right this year won't go as well next year. These were some of the positives to the season:
- Consistency from Price.
- Elite penalty kill
- Career season from Cole.
- Strong improvements from Pacioretty, Desharnais, Emelin, Eller
- No injuries to Subban, Plekanec, Gorges

That's my list, maybe you'd make a different list. Either way, I listed 10 different events that we benefited from last year. How many of those will repeat this year? Probably not all 10.

In the middle of last summer, I was criticized by this forum for not being optimistic about our defense. This summer, I'm criticized for not being optimistic about our playoff hopes. That's fine.

I'm pretty sure I'm right. I'm confident in predicting an approximate 12th place finish. Bottom line is this team finished 15th with some things going well and other things going badly. There's just too much that needs to change for me to see a vast improvement as likely. Of course, it IS possible, I just don't think it's likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyB11 View Post
Things are looking up in Hab Land!! Statistically, at least?
They're looking up from 15th place in my opinion.

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