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06-28-2012, 12:05 PM
joshjull's Avatar
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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

Ennis's statistics suggest he might be the No. 1 center the Sabres have been sorely missing. But the advanced statistics say something else.

In 2010-11, the Sabres' forward had a shooting percentage of 9.5, a season in which he scored 20 goals and added 29 assists. In 2011-12, Ennis finished with an unsustainable 18.3 shooting percentage.
Some other factors playing into Ennis's chances to regress are his Quality of Competition statistics. Last year, the only centers on the Sabres that faced easier competition were Luke Adam and Cody McCormick. If he is the Sabres' No. 1 next year, he will undoubtedly see the league's best on the other side of the ice. (the QoC statistic is based on the puck possession numbers for opponents that were on the ice at the same time)
There's another factor that played into Ennis' success was the explosion of forward Marcus Foligno. Foligno scored 13 points in 14 games in 2011-12. But if you thought Ennis' production was unsustainable, Foligno's is even more so. His shooting percentage was 26.1 percent, about 16 percent over league average and more than twice the league's best scorers. Can Foligno continue to score? Absolutely. Can he continue his pace from last year? Probably not.
The top 10 teams in the NHL in puck possession made the playoffs. The advanced stats say that when Ennis was on the ice, the opposing team had the puck much more than the Sabres. In fact, Ennis ranked 11th amongst forwards on the team in Corsi On, a statistic that measures possession when a player is on the ice.

I'm impressed that WGR has a staffer (Matt Coller) that can put together an article like this.

These are things many of us already knew. He's pretty much arguing Ennis' value is pretty high right now so trading him would net a good return. I don't think he is saying we shoudl trade him but consider it. At least thats my take.

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