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06-28-2012, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
Cam doesn't really accurately represent Tyler's conclusion, and Cam's conclusion isn't really reflected in the data. You can't just equate first rounder with future first line player and lower round pick with bottom six player.

There are two different kinds of safe pick - the Ryan Kesler/Mike Richards type and the Colton Gillies/Taylor Ellington type. The Ryan Kesler mould safe pick is the guy who puts up decent offensive numbers at lower levels but whose offense doesn't necessarily project to the next level. The Colton Gillies type is the guy who has no offense even at lower levels but is a safe pick in that he's good at other elements of the game.

Tyler, in his article, warns against the latter type of pick. Mallet (and Gaunce, for that matter) fit into the first mould.
I think he should look at the picks from playoff teams, given weight equal to the number of rounds they won.

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