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06-29-2012, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
Do the math; at $500m+ loss per quarter that gives RIM very little time, and public perception of them has now noticeably turned from "they're in trouble" to "they're all but a goner." Who's going to buy new BB gear now? I sure as heck wouldn't (and didn't; I bought an Android phone a couple months ago).
That's not entirely true:

"Revenue was $2.8 billion for the quarter. That’s down a whopping 33% from last quarter. But keep in mind last quarter. To get a sense of how disappointing this is, the Street was expecting revenue of $3.1 billion. So it’s a miss of just over 10% Not pretty.

Earnings-wise, Wall Street expected a small loss (one penny per share). In reality RIM lost $0.37 per share, which amounts to $192 million.

RIM shipped only 7.8 million BlackBerry devices, compared to Wall Street expectations for 8.7 million. Again, that’s about a 10% shortfall.

Thorsten Heins says that the BlackBerry subscriber base is still growing in all regions except the United States

RIM is still cash flow positive. The media is already screwing this up, so it’s worth spending a moment to make sure this is crystal clear to our readers. RIM lost money when you look at the income statement. But a business’ actual cash flow is often very different from accounting profits or losses.

Looking at RIM’s cash flow statement, they generated about $710 million in cash flow from operations. This is a real number, and they are real dollars. However, almost $400 million of this came from a reduction in working capital.

RIM has a business that can still bring in about $300 million per quarter right now, minus some capital spending that will still be required. Plus, they’re implementing a cost cutting program to save another $1 billion per year (or $250 million per quarter). This means RIM can probably absorb a decline of another $500 million in cash flow from operations before starting to burn cash. The caveat is they need to execute on their restructuring plan for this to be true. Execution hasn’t been a strong point for this company lately.

Also a key point to consider:

On the conference call last night they actually said that the sell through for devices was actually about 10.5 million versus the 7.8 million shipped. They also said the sell thru for PlayBook was also higher than the 260000 shipped.

Things are definitely very bad for RIM right now but as usual the media is exaggerating how bad and ignoring a few key points.

But if RIM does eventually fail I'm sure many people on this board will be very happy for some strange reason. I guess they like seeing hard working Canadians lose their jobs.

Last edited by Neely2005: 06-29-2012 at 07:33 PM.
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