Measuring offensive production
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06-30-2012, 03:58 PM
Join Date: Oct 2009
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
I think you have an interesting idea, but I'm a bit confused.
First, if Crosby was 38th two seasons ago, then you must have given him credit for this season. Since he scored 37 points and the minimum is a half season, then by your method he scored at a 74 point pace. 74 points would be tied for 18th, except that Sharp, Datsyuk and Daniel Sedin all scored at more than a 74 points pace. So under your system, Crosby wouldn't even qualify for a top 20 pace, but seems to be given credit for a top 5 pace. How can this be so?
Second, it appears that you not only credit injured players who play at a top 5/10/20 pace with a half-season minimum, but penalize players who
finished in the top 5/10/20 if someone with a higher pace displaces that player. For instance, if Crosby is given credit for a top 5 pace in 2011, does that mean Stamkos is no longer given credit for his 5th place finish? This seems quite unfair to me, as it gives an injured player more credit than a player who completed a season in the top X players.
I think you misinterpreted the methodology. This season the fifth highest PPG with at least 41 games was 1.05 scored by Jason Spezza. All players with a PPG at least that high gets credit for the number of games they actually played as "games scored at a top 5 pace". For this season that was Stamkos (82 games), Spezza (80), Giroux (77), Kovalchuk (77), Malkin (75), Crosby (22) and Aliu (2!). The same holds for top 10 (where the cutoff was 0.988, H. Sedin) and top 20 (cutoff 0.939, Whitney).
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