Thread: Confirmed with Link: Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit
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07-06-2012, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Hockey Buddha View Post
No attempt to cherry pick stats here. I went strictly by save percentage from last season and selected 4 goaltenders in Dubnyk's range. Cam Ward is a better goaltender than Dubnyk at this stage (he's in his prime at 28 and he's not a great deal better than Dubnyk really, but he gets the nod for the time being); he's also a couple of years older (and making 2.5 M more a season). Imo Dubnyk is a better goaltender than Niemi, who played well enough to win the cup behind a great Blackhawks team, although I never thought that Niemi played particularly outstanding in any of the playoff series that he played, and he let in some soft goals during the run that his team compensated for. Craig Anderson is a decent goalie, but I think Dubnyk is on a higher trajectory and Nabokov, at 37, is at the end of his career. No comparison is perfect, but I just noted that Dubnyk's pay is not completely out of line for where he's at. I wouldn't trade Dubnyk straight up for Niemi, Anderson, or Nabokov, personally, and probably not even Ward, considering the money he's making. Certainly, Dubnyk still has some things to prove, but he's shown himself capable of taking the reins the past couple of seasons.
Not sure how you think Dubnyk is on higher trajectory than Craig Anderson. At least Anderson had a brilliant season and is paid accordingly on that basis. Dubnyk was 20 - 25, had mediocre save %, GAA, and hasn't distinguished himself in anyway, ever, He's been toiling as an NHL backup on the basis of beating out one player, JDD(and hardly at that) and due to a GM that wouldn't fill a key spot better than hiring Khabi. If we got a real reliable goalie instead we're not even having this Dubnyk conversation and he's in the where are they now file.

Next, citing stats is misleading because the team carefully managed Dubnyks starts through much of the season. For the most part they gave him the games they expected the team to do better in.

For instance a look at his starts against some non playoff teams is interesting.

If you were trying to make an Oiler goalie look good who would you start him against i our conference?

Columbus, correct. Dubnyk got ALL 4 games against the hapless blue jackets. The closest thing the Oilers have had to guaranteed win night.

What non playoff division team that has our number would you avoid putting Dubnyk out against? Minnesota, correct, Dubnyk had zero starts against Minny. How'd that happen. Doesn't look random to me.

For the record he had 4 games against the Flames, a safe bet because the Flames had one of the most putrid offences in the league.

He had 3 starts against the other bad team, Colorado.

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