Quote:
Originally Posted by snarktacular
Dunno how popular this will be, but I have a "game" for you. Not a fun game, but more a thought exercise. I want to compare Souray's salary to the salary of other UFAs. We can do this with the other players too, but Souray's contract is clearly the most controversial one.
First a baseline. This is what I think prior to doing exercise. I think an 82 game Souray is worth about 3 million. He's a #45 who can play both special teams. I think Souray is actually worth more like 2 million. Under that actually. Basically he misses some 30 games a year, meaning you should pay him 5/8 of what he should command while healthy.
Now on to the comparables game. Basically if player X is worth the salary they got Y, then how much should a healthy Souray be worth. My answers that follow are not necessarily done with a lot of research, just based off my general views of the player.
If Allen is worth 3.5, then healthy Souray is worth 3
If Beauchemin is worth 3.5, then healthy Souray is worth 2.5
If Carle is worth 5.5, then healthy Souray is worth 4.5
If Suter is worth 7.5, then healthy Souray is worth 2.5
If Salvador is worth 3.2, then healthy Souray is worth 2.8
If Brookbank is worth 1.2, then healthy Souray is worth 2.7
If Garrison is worth 4.6, then healthy Souray is worth 3.6
If Salo is worth 3.8, then healthy Souray is worth 3.5
If Aucoin is worth 2.3, then healthy Souray is worth 3.2
If Kuba is worth 4.0, then healthy Souray is worth 3.7
I think what this exercise showed me is that I still think Souray is overpaid, but probably not by as much as I originally thought (if you assume he will be completely healthy). This UFA crop seems to be a little crazy, and his price tag isn't too out of line with the other guys. OTH, I still do not like the "if healthy" assumption and I really think we will be paying for it. If he retires, then the 35+ part doesn't matter. But if he still plays the seasons and goes on IR, then we are in trouble because we still pay his salary, we need to pay a replacement, and the team is still a budget team.
I'd be curious to see other people's valuations of the various players. For these or any other guys.

Beauchemin is on a discount.
Carle is overpayed.
I disagree with Suter. I think he is payed the right amount but 2.5 is too little for Souray.
Souray at 3.6 is not that overpayed. The 3 years is what pisses me off.