Thread: Confirmed with Link: Ducks sign Sheldon Souray. 3 years 3.67 mil
View Single Post
Old
07-08-2012, 02:41 PM
  #164
Ducks DVM
Moderator
There is no grunion
 
Ducks DVM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Long Beach, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 15,426
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by snarktacular View Post
Dunno how popular this will be, but I have a "game" for you. Not a fun game, but more a thought exercise. I want to compare Souray's salary to the salary of other UFAs. We can do this with the other players too, but Souray's contract is clearly the most controversial one.

First a baseline. This is what I think prior to doing exercise. I think an 82 game Souray is worth about 3 million. He's a #4-5 who can play both special teams. I think Souray is actually worth more like 2 million. Under that actually. Basically he misses some 30 games a year, meaning you should pay him 5/8 of what he should command while healthy.


Now on to the comparables game. Basically if player X is worth the salary they got Y, then how much should a healthy Souray be worth. My answers that follow are not necessarily done with a lot of research, just based off my general views of the player.

If Allen is worth 3.5, then healthy Souray is worth 3
If Beauchemin is worth 3.5, then healthy Souray is worth 2.5
If Carle is worth 5.5, then healthy Souray is worth 4.5
If Suter is worth 7.5, then healthy Souray is worth 2.5
If Salvador is worth 3.2, then healthy Souray is worth 2.8
If Brookbank is worth 1.2, then healthy Souray is worth 2.7
If Garrison is worth 4.6, then healthy Souray is worth 3.6
If Salo is worth 3.8, then healthy Souray is worth 3.5
If Aucoin is worth 2.3, then healthy Souray is worth 3.2
If Kuba is worth 4.0, then healthy Souray is worth 3.7


I think what this exercise showed me is that I still think Souray is overpaid, but probably not by as much as I originally thought (if you assume he will be completely healthy). This UFA crop seems to be a little crazy, and his price tag isn't too out of line with the other guys. OTH, I still do not like the "if healthy" assumption and I really think we will be paying for it. If he retires, then the 35+ part doesn't matter. But if he still plays the seasons and goes on IR, then we are in trouble because we still pay his salary, we need to pay a replacement, and the team is still a budget team.

I'd be curious to see other people's valuations of the various players. For these or any other guys.
I agree with most of these, except you should use Suter's salary over the next 3 years (35 million) rather than his fake cap hit due to his due to his circumvention contract.

Another interesting exercise - how much do you think a position should be paid? #1-#6 D salary, preferably without fake numbers due to circumventions. The reason I ask is that most people think that #6 D should still be making 700K and #4 D should be in the 2M range, which is where they were with a 42M cap even though the cap is now 70M.

Ducks DVM is offline   Reply With Quote