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07-14-2012, 01:34 AM
  #109
Rob Paxon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoFFacet View Post
Back up, breathe, think rationally. What is the specific opportunity cost of the hypothetical Doan contract? Who are the specific UFAs that you think will be available next year or in the subsequent relevant years that would both (A) help this team and (B) would realistically sign here. Keep in mind the recent league wide trend of most important players never reaching FA, and the ones that do going to hand-picked locations for reasons other than money (Richards, Parise, Suter).
I understand you quoted two people but I don't see what any of this has to do with what you quoted from me. I didn't mention ability to sign other UFAs. I don't want to see a situation where you're stuck (legitimately stuck: can't bury in minors, can't do anything) with a player should he become marginal or worse down the line.

But to address this whole matter:

#1 We have our own players to worry about keeping and the new CBA will lower the amount of revenue players get, without question

#2 You talk about how UFAs are unrealistic to land when landing Doan is less realistic than any of the guys you mentioned. The difference is, when someone dreams about landing Parise or Richards they're dreaming about overpaying less than we'd be overpaying for Doan and of contracts that we could actually bite the bullet on and do something about when they become unsavory.

#3 There are players out there and always will be, in the UFA and trade market. Doan is not the end all be all perfect addition to be made and he certainly isn't within the context of his age and the 35+ contract provisions.

Further, the whole reason other UFAs get money at a $7.5 million cap hit is because the team is buying their prime years and is also fudging the cap a bit in later years of the deal. With Doan you're paying the same money for post-prime years, not fudging the cap at all, and have literally no recourse for dealing with his cap hit should it become necessary to do so. That makes two gigantic factors that multiply the overpayment beyond the obvious dollar-to-player value ratio.

This is all academic, though, as Buffalo is probably not even close to a team he would consider and Darcy was surely not the nut who offered him a 4 year contract.

Edit: You changed your post around and have addressed what you've quoted of me in specific:

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoFFacet View Post
I don't follow. If the numbers say that we won't need to jettison anyone of consequence even if we drag around a 7.5M 4th liner for 3 years, and the depth chart says we don't need any medium UFA acquisitions, and the likelyhood of being able to land the only possible opportunity cost (a blockbuster UFA in his prime) sometime in those 3 years is nearly zero... where is the risk?
#1 The numbers say next to nothing. We don't know what the cap will be and we only have a general concept of what our figure would be.

#2 Shane Doan is not a blockbuster UFA and he is not in his prime.

#3 Shane Doan is less likely to be interested in Buffalo than many other worthwhile UFA players

#4 Adding to your team does not revolve around signing the "best blockbuster UFA" available in a given offseason

#5 The risk has been spelled out quite clearly and is just simply inherently obvious with how contracts for players aged 35 or older work. Regarding just how much an overpayment this is, when you consider what a $7.5 cap hit for an actual prime-aged player is relative to Shane Doan, I've addressed above.


Last edited by Rob Paxon: 07-14-2012 at 01:39 AM.
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