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07-17-2012, 04:29 PM
Jake the Snake Man
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Somewhat comparable players are Steen, Marchand, Voracek, Simmonds, Foligno, and Callahan. They're all wingers in similar point ranges and were all Group 2 RFAs for their last contracts.

We're familiar with Steener. 3.36 million a year. Has more games played and is considered a team leader. Has also missed a decent number of games due to injury, but that was after signing his current contract.

Marchand makes 2.5 and signed after a 21 goal, 41 point season - a year in which he also kicked ass in the playoffs en route to a Cup: 25gp, 11g, 8a, 19p, +12. The key difference at the signing of that contract is that Oshie gets more points, has a better two-way game, and is older.

Voracek made 2.25 on his last contract, signed after consecutive 50 and 46 point seasons. The key difference is that Oshie is older, has a better two way game, accumulates points at a little higher rate, and has missed a lot more games due to injury.

Simmonds may or may not be comparable because he is now, but wasn't when he signed his deal a year ago. I'll assume he's not comparable, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the comparison allowed.

Foligno just scored 47 points and signed a deal a hair over 3 million. Again, Oshie is a bit better and more proven scorer, has a better overall game, and has missed more games.

Callahan is an interesting case. Before signing his current deal at 4.275, he had 23 goals and 48 points in 60 games. He was also an alternate captain and was then named captain shortly after signing the deal. He and Oshie have comparable two-way skill and have both missed time to injury. Oshie has missed a good chunk more time and cannot compete in the leadership arena.
Another item to note is that Callahan's current contract eats up some UFA years - I don't know if that's admissible, but it's not insignificant.

Based on that, unless there are some really compelling comparisons that I'm missing (there are plenty more, but I don't know if any of them are wildly different from this set), I think he gets a hair under 4 million, probably more like 3.5. Maybe a bit lower due to injury concerns, but any lower than 3.25 would surprise me.

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