2008-09 NHL Goals Above Replacement for Goalies
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07-17-2012, 11:40 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Does anyone have any views on these methods of determining replacement level goalies? This assumes that GAA and/or Save % are used as the primary basis of the metric for goaltender value.
A) Sort the top 2N (where N is # teams in league) goalies in NHL in terms of games played. Assume the top 1N (in terms of games, or alternatively in terms of either save % or GAA) of those 2N are the "starters" and that the remainder are "backups." Use either the mean or median goalie among goalies 1N+1 to 2N as the replacement level. An alternative to selecting the top 1N goalies is to simply use the "actual" starters and then use the same basic method from there.
B) Sort all the goalies in terms of games played or GAA/save% (if use either of latter two, could use min. games or top ~2.5N goalies in games). If sorted by save % or GAA, use the 2N+1 goalie as replacement level. If sorted by games, use a weighted average of GAA/save% for all goalies > 2N in games.
C) Sort all the goalies by GAA/Sv% (with min. games) and use the 1N+1 goalie as replacement level.
The basis of "A" is that a goalie with the mean/median level of the back-ups should be available by trade for a relatively reasonable amount. The basis of "B" is that goalies not considered starter/backup quality should be available for very little. The basis of "C" is that a goalie who's not of starter quality should be considered replacement level.
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