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07-17-2012, 11:16 PM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
When I did this, I did something that was a combination science/art - I looked at each NHL team, and considered who the top two goaltenders were for each team at the start of the season.

Then, I compared their aggregated statistics with those of all other goalies (goalies called up from the minors either due to poor play or injury).

I arrived at about a save percentage difference of about 0.015 for each of the three seasons I tested, and that passed my sniff test, so I went with it. I'd like to do something more rigorous sometime once I have the time.
That seems reasonable, and similar to the methods which I've considered (you chose "B" it sound like). In the thread for your study, you said it was a "SWAG" (wild guess), but it seems you actually did some research and made a very educated guess in choosing (league avg. SV% - .015) for replacement level. From what I know, as we go back in time, the parity was lower, total league talent was lower, and SV% differed from more recent levels, so I wonder if the differential varied significantly in past decades?

I hope you didn't view my feedback on your study as negative, as it certainly was not intended that way. You did some nice work there.

Is SV% considered more reliable than GAA due to less influence from team/external factors? I haven't looked at goalies too closely, so just wondering what the consensus is.

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