Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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07-27-2012, 11:14 PM
Join Date: Apr 2007
Originally Posted by
I'll toss up a weak first opinion, to echo what I said in the Introduce Yourself thread:
I don't think it can. It's not segmented like baseball or football. It's too fluid, too complicated, and there are far too many variables to consider. For each statistic shown, it has to be given at least two layers of context to have any meaning. Usually far more.
I also think it will be very difficult.
Just imagine the following simple situation. Patrick Kane comes down the left side of the rink, the defence plays him perfectly, they keep him to the outside and allow a weak shot from almost the corner. A stick even gets in there causing the puck to slide weakly on the ice. Great defence from all five players on the ice. Oh no! The puck goes in. Game over! Stanley Cup goes to Chicago.
In real life, a team played good defence and really worked hard to keep a dynamic player to the outside, but on the stat sheet, all it says about that shift is one goal against.
I think finding a way to take that situation and fairly put that into a statistic is going to be really difficult. That goal is entirely on the goalie, but there is no way to know unless we have human's rating the difficulty of a goal and shown by UZR in baseball, the second humans have to rate something, there are problems.
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