Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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07-28-2012, 05:29 AM
Join Date: Jun 2012
Originally Posted by
For every shot, there's about a minute and a half of play in an average hockey game, much of which
Fixed that for you. Although I think your estimate of 90s per shot is high. That's only 40 shots per game, a number often passed by a single team. Even the St. Louis-LA series averaged more than 40 shots per game and those teams are famed for their low shots against totals.
Originally Posted by
Some of the stats may be valuable, but I'm very dubious of the category as a whole.
Then it's a good thing it is improving. People are constantly finding new ways to quantify a player/team. Traditional hockey analysis (good 'ol Tranna boy, not some gutless yuropeen *slams hands on desk*) is static. It doesn't change. It's out of date and doesn't reflect the reality of the game.
Think Newton's Laws and relativity. Yes, relativity always applies, but until you hit .1c, you can just zero out the effect with no consequence unless you're using more than something like 5 significant figures. That's baseball.
Baseball is Newtonian physics. Simple and easy to measure. Throw ball up, ball falls down. Hockey is quantum mechanics. While it may be more difficult, it can be figured out.
I don't understand how you have to choose to either take all of the stats or none of the stats. Too often I see anti-stat folk discarding perfectly accurate and reasoned stats because they say mean things about their favorite player/team, then saying all stats suck.
I prefer stats that start by looking at things we know to be true, yet don't measure. Zone starts is a great example. Every hockey fan understands that starting in your own zone is harder than starting the opponent's zone. People are now moving onto zone exits and zone entries. We understand that a player able to breakout of his zone is a good player, so tracking who these players are helps us understand their relative value.
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