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07-28-2012, 05:22 AM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by Polansky View Post
I think it would be important to take time into consideration, but maybe in the end it won't matter?
I would guess the goals/60 min during PO OT and goals/60 min during PO regulation are quite different, although I have no evidence of this.

I don't think it matters to this type of study, because only one goal can be scored in OT. Once OT starts, the fact that one more and exactly one more goal will be scored is a certainty. Therefore, the time it takes to score that goal is basically irrelevant IMO.

Using per-minute data is not only much more time-consuming, but I think it would cause playoffs with a high % of OT games to appear lower scoring than they really are (assuming goals in OT are less frequent than in regulation). It's comparing gpg scored under regular season conditions to gpg scored under playoff conditions, weighted by games played for each PO team. I don't think using per-minute data helps, because the same condition (unlimited OT) was not present during regular season games.

This is meant as a guideline to compare groups of seasons for players in different eras, not as an exact adjustment factor for single seasons (although it's likely better than comparing raw data).

I think Pnep has worked on adjusting playoff scoring also. I'm not sure his methodology. He may just use regular season gpg to adjust the data.

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