Thread: NHL Draft Value
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07-28-2012, 11:03 AM
Doctor No
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I like this idea - and I wasn't actually aware that people had done research to impute the NHL teams' perceived value of draft picks.

For actual value, I was thinking of doing something using Hockey Reference's "point shares" as a proxy for value, discounting each year by some amount (8%, perhaps?) to reflect that a team loses the ability to control a player (free agency, et cetera) over time.

For instance, Trevor Linden - drafted second overall in 1988 - had 4.5 point shares his first season (so he gets full credit for that). His next year, he gets 92% credit for 3.2 point shares (or 2.9 point shares). Continuing the exercise for his entire career, I equate Linden's "draft value" at 43.2 DPS (discounted point shares).

Then you have to do this for all second overall picks (and then for all overall picks), and that's where I run out of time at the moment.

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