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07-29-2012, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Iain Fyffe View Post
When people talk about clutchiness, they generally don't mean matchups, though those certainly have an effect. But you're once again falling into the trap of saying that everything can be explained by matchups, and leaving no room whatever for normal variance. We've been down this road before, of course. Not everything can be explained by Team A having a preponderance of right-handed centres.
No you are simply drifting towards your own biases of variances and trying to narrow down the issue to match-ups.

A goalies performance may be measured by SV% in a global manner as is often the case on HF boards. Or you can extend the SV% analysis the way the teams do it factoring in the provenance of the shot by zones, the location of the shot - part of the net and the type of offence that is faced - perimeter, rush, crash the net, east/west movement,etc. Then match the results against the oppositions results - where do they score their goals from, type of shots, type of offence, etc. Looking at all aspects of the data advances understanding.

For variance to be a factor it would have to be shown that from season to season a goalies global SV% is relatively constant globally, but the component sub SV%s vary greatly. His performance on breakaways may vary by 25-30% from season to season, by 40% on shots from the LW(strong one/weak the next) vs RW(weak one/strong the next),etc.

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