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07-29-2012, 08:24 PM
  #28
Czech Your Math
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metalfoot View Post
I know this is probably impossible to implement, but I wonder if a study on linear vs non-linear adjusted point systems would be possible. I mean, adjusted points always seem to blow up on outliers (cue yet another discussion on why Stamkos scoring 60 is way better than Gretzky scoring 92) but it seems to me that typical adjustment systems might fall down precisely because they are linear, and maybe there is a curve (of what form, I don't know) which would better fit the data? This would take a lot of brain power, spreadsheet/database wizardry, and imagination, but it might be worthwhile.
There's no evidence that adjusted points are inaccurate for outliers (individual players). Adjusted points seem to be less accurate when the talent pool becomes particularly thin or dense, which is also related to times when the league has extreme parity or disparity. They are also less accurate when conditions change and favor/disfavor certain types of players more than others (increased PPs, increased roster sizes, etc.).

There are two main periods that had "inflated" adjusted points: the decade or so after WWII and the decade or so after expansion. The main period that had "deflated" adjusted points was the decade or so after the WHA merger. Besides those periods, adjusted points work extremely well and the differences are relatively minor.

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