Thread: NHL Draft Value
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07-30-2012, 04:59 PM
  #11
Buttonwood
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Rounding out the top picks of the 1988 draft, I get.

#1 Mike Modano - 67.6 DPS
#2 Trevor Linden - 43.2 DPS
#3 Curtis Leschyshyn - 24.1 DPS
#4 Darrin Shannon - 9.9 DPS
#5 Daniel Dore - -0.1 DPS
#6 Scott Pearson - 2.6 DPS
#7 Martin Gelinas - 27.6 DPS
#8 Jeremy Roenick - 68.5 DPS
#9 Rod Brind'amour - 51.2 DPS
#10 Teemu Selanne - 64.6 DPS

Selanne gets penalized for two reasons - one, he started his great career a few years after the others, and two, he's probably still got value left in the reservoir. The estimation of the remaining reservoir is a challenge, but not an undefeatable one.

Shannon, Dore and Pearson bring up some interesting questions - should a player be penalized for a season of below 0 DPS? I'm leaning towards "no", or (backsliding somewhat) flooring the career DPS at 0.
Just for comparisons sake here is the same list using the simple formula (These players were measured against ppg in their own draft year, figured it was a more offensive time).

Adjusted Expected Games - Player

2,293 Mike Modano
1,447 Trevor Linden
721 Curtis Leschyshyn
417 Darrin Shannon
8 Daniel Dore
164 Scott Pearson
1,102 Martin Gelinas
2,030 Jeremy Roenick
1,976 Rod Brind'Amour
2,347 Teemu Selanne

Not horrible, not great either. I'm going to change the 'production factor' slightly to not give so much emphasis to offense. I'll re-post the team year table and maybe a draft just for arguments sake so people can pick it apart.

And yes, I'm a Flames fan so obviously Martin Gelinas was almost as good as Linden.

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