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12-02-2003, 09:53 PM
agentfouser's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Originally Posted by DeathFromAbove
What it means is open to interpretation. Clearly, you have a better than a coin flip's chance of winning a game if you lead that particular game in shots. But as far as I'm concerned, it does not appear to be comparable to the amount of stress analysts/commentators place on the stat. Often, shots on goal are a result of being behind and pouring it on late in the game as the leading team packs it in. Essentially, what it boils down to is that if you are leading a game in shots on goal, there is a 53.5% chance that the stat is an indicator of your dominance in the game and a 46.5% chance that the stat is an indicator that you're behind in the game. Not exactly the most telling of stats.

i wouldn't say that its an indicator of your dominance in a game; that's really an intangilble that can't be quantified. rather, leading in shots on goal probably means that, at the very least, your shots are getting through. not that you're applying more pressure, getting more quality opportunities like scrambles in front of the net, or anything else. just that your shots are getting through to the goalie.

it seems like many other statistics in not-easily-quantifiable evndeavors like hockey: it can be used as a piece of empirical evidence to support a claim, such as "our team is playing well because we're outshooting our opponents," or, it can be completely disregarded by noting that the team with more shots only wins 53% of the time.

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