Can the Home-Ice Advantage be Measured Statistically?
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07-31-2012, 08:18 AM
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Waterloo Ontario
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
This seems like a good idea.
The way home/road splits have been calculated seems good. The only complicating factor is that since the lockout, there are shootout W/L.
I can think of a few factors that could affect difference in home/road records:
- coaching: coaches that utilize matchups more should have larger H/R splits
- depth of talent: teams with skater talent more evenly distributed should have smaller H/R splits than those which are imbalanced and more dependent on favorable matchups
- goaltending: teams with a very large proportion of team value at goalie should have smaller H/R splits
- travel: teams in cities which are particularly far away from other NHL cities should have larger H/R splits
- team dynamic: teams which are particularly close knit may have smaller H/R splits, as may those that are particularly "unfocused" at home (e.g. we're home... it's party time!)
- team quality/refereeing: bad teams may be favored more by refs at home, while good teams would seem less likely to get (more like need) such advantages to stay competitive
- team style: some teams may play a more entertaining style at home, while playing a more disciplined style on the road, which would decrease their H/R splits
It would be interesting to understand the travel dynamic on actual performance.
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