View Single Post
08-01-2012, 10:28 AM
Iain Fyffe
Hockey fact-checker
Iain Fyffe's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fredericton, NB
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,079
vCash: 500
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
In other words, my fake league, where no team is uniquely advantaged at home, and where differences between teams in % of wins obtained at home are entirely due to random variation, looks an awful lot like the real NHL.
The last thing I ever published at my old site was about this sort of thing. It showed that even if the results of games are completely random, some teams can appear to be much better than others. The article builds narratives out of randomness.

Which is not to say that NHL results are completely random; far from it. Just that the importance of variance is so often understated, or ignored completely in favour of one team "wanting it more."

Iain Fyffe is offline   Reply With Quote