Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?
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08-01-2012, 10:58 PM
The Fear Boners
Plz stop pucks
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Scrip Club
Originally Posted by
I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.
For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.
I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?
Its not the trap
Yes, a lot of behind the scenes stuff is changing. I can tell you there are a few teams playing with a couple of formulas including adjusted plus minus with different types of regression, expected scoring and adjusted scoring with league and conference adjustments (but no division adjustments, which i'm on the fence about), DIGR which is basically save percentage adjusted for your defense to see whos sheltered and whatnot.
Lots of these stats are still very infantile. Baseball is easy to track, pitch counts, types, balls hit, balls in play, WAR/UZR/BABIP/etc; hockey is a lot more difficult to track. There are also a lot of people working at it right now so while it can be confusing and everyone bickers that the way this person does it is wrong, its overall very helpful. They're finding things that overlap or picking up an idea or two from different stats which helps in the long run making stats more accurate.
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