Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?
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08-01-2012, 10:12 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Originally Posted by
I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.
For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.
I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?
The idea is to start with the end goal, and work backwards to see how you can get there. In baseball, if you want to win, you need to score, and unless you hit a home run (which cheap players usually aren't good at ... and the A's were going for cheap), you have to get on base. Getting on base is the key.
In hockey, if you want to win you need to score. To score you need to shoot. And to shoot, you need to have possession of the puck in the offensive zone.
I'm a bit unclear on the details, but I've seen two "advanced stats" called Corsi and Fenwick which are supposed to measure how often you have offensive-zone puck possession. IIRC the top two teams in Fenwick post-lockout were the 2008 Wings and the 2010 Blackhawks - and I don't think that's a coincidence.
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