Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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08-02-2012, 01:18 AM
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Originally Posted by
Bobby Ryan Getzlaf
Exactly. A great example that I am familiar with is the San Jose-Anaheim series from 2009. Everyone raved how great Hiller was and the Sharks were badly outshooting the Ducks, but if you watched the games Hiller had it fairly easy and the Ducks were easily the better team. They just played great defense and let the Sharks take low percentage shots from the circles all game.
Scoring chances over shots is a much better indicator, but even then it's flawed. Partially because of the same problem, a semi-decent scoring chance is rated the same as a great one, but also because tallying scoring chances is hard in itself to do, as it's based on judgement(not unlike errors in baseball).
In the end, like defense in baseball, the only way to get a full grasp on it is scouting. The average Joe might be a bit off base with some of it, but someone who knows what he's looking for(when scouting actually matters) will be fine.
No, the Ducks weren't "easily the better team."
At best, they were even.
The Ducks had the lead for a lot of the series, and that hurts them with respect to the shot count, which invariably favors the trailing team.
But the Sharks still had more shots when the score was close. And by a fair margin too (154-122 in terms of attempted shots at EV).
If you think that the Sharks were shooting from further away, then prove it.
The data is available.
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