Adjusted Playoff Scoring
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08-02-2012, 02:28 AM
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Triangle
Ok, it was a little painful on an iPhone but I crunched the G/60 numbers for the 2012 playoffs. The results surprised me.
GP/60 in regulation - 4.55
GP/60 in overtime - 6.18
The reason it went against my gut was simple -- I underestimated how many OTs end within a few minutes.
That triggered my curiosity, so I took it another step and calculated G/60 for each five-minute increment of an overtime period.
First 5 minutes - 7.53
Second 5 minutes - 3.08
Third 5 minutes - 8.28
Fourth 5 minutes - 4.79
That's closer than it looks to a linear decline. If a goal scored at 10:36 had been scored at 9:59, we would see a nice graceful downward curve. A larger sample size should smooth it out.
So... here's what really got me:
Fifth 5 minutes, AKA the beginning of double OT - 17.51
Of the four games which went to double-OT, three were decided within the first five minutes of that period (the other one went to 3OT). I'm sure this is a sample size issue, since I glanced over the past few years and the pattern doesn't extend to those seasons. However, it triggers a new hypothesis that during the playoffs, GAA is highest at the beginning of each OT period and makes a linear decline till the end, then resets at the start of a new period... possibly even increasing with each period. There are some common-sense explanations for that phenomenon, but I'd love to see the data confirm it first.
- In 2012, G/60 went up substantially when playoff games entered OT.
- G/60 appeared to make a linear decline as time passed in each OT period.
- It may be the case that G/60 spikes substantially at the beginning of each progressive OT period.
That's all I can bear on a phone at this ungodly hour
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