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08-02-2012, 03:20 AM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
GP/60 in regulation - 4.55
GP/60 in overtime - 6.18

The reason it went against my gut was simple -- I underestimated how many OTs end within a few minutes.

That triggered my curiosity, so I took it another step and calculated G/60 for each five-minute increment of an overtime period.

First 5 minutes - 7.53
Second 5 minutes - 3.08
Third 5 minutes - 8.28
Fourth 5 minutes - 4.79

That's closer than it looks to a linear decline. If a goal scored at 10:36 had been scored at 9:59, we would see a nice graceful downward curve. A larger sample size should smooth it out.

So... here's what really got me:

Fifth 5 minutes, AKA the beginning of double OT - 17.51

Of the four games which went to double-OT, three were decided within the first five minutes of that period (the other one went to 3OT). I'm sure this is a sample size issue, since I glanced over the past few years and the pattern doesn't extend to those seasons. However, it triggers a new hypothesis that during the playoffs, GAA is highest at the beginning of each OT period and makes a linear decline till the end, then resets at the start of a new period... possibly even increasing with each period. There are some common-sense explanations for that phenomenon, but I'd love to see the data confirm it first.

- In 2012, G/60 went up substantially when playoff games entered OT.
- G/60 appeared to make a linear decline as time passed in each OT period.
- It may be the case that G/60 spikes substantially at the beginning of each progressive OT period.
For 2011:

5.48/60 in regulation
4.84/60 in OT
4.46/60 in 1OT
6.38/60 in 2OT

Someone should verify these numbers.

It would be worthwhile to use per 60 min. data for goalies, since that is how their GAA is calculated during the season.

For skaters, one would have to back out their regular season OT goals to compare properly. That would be rather complicated and time-consuming, but the effect should be minimal.

Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-02-2012 at 04:07 AM.
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