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08-03-2012, 12:03 AM
  #8
svat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
How is this better, or even as good as, ES GF/GA ratio or differential (i.e. plus-minus)?

It's "the most useful stat" because it regresses to the mean?

I'd say it's more like "most useless stat."
Teams have shown that they cannot sustain very high PDO's over a season (can't remember the article I found, but it basically showed no team demonstrated an ability to shoot too high over the mean for even half a season [with exceptions of course, i.e the preds this year, terrible team that rode percentages the whole year and special teams]). It is very important because it tells you who is playing well enough to sustain their success and who is just getting hot for a bit. Goal differential is of course very important, but in conjunction with PDO, it really weeds out who SHOULD continue their success and who should fall back down.

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