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08-03-2012, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Any one of the components of my proposed 1-year surgery could fail, however there are many separate components, so you can't expect all of them to fail.

Reiterating the list:

1) Enter the season with the current roster. Thats gets us a high draft pick, probably top-5 in the current draft. Probability of success? Maybe 50%.

Timmins drafted Price with the 5th overall, Kostitsyn with the 10th overall, and McDonagh with the 12th overall, so the evidence suggests he's actually very strong with high picks. That's a home run, a double and a walk with picks inferior to top-5 ... so my 50% may be too conservative.

2) Don't trade any of our current 2nd rounders. Note that Calgary and Nashville may have a lot of trouble this year, and 3 picks in the range 31-45 for the deepest draft year in a decade is a strong possibility. Like I said in my OP. You know what's better than having a Sebastian Colberg in your system? Having 4 Sebastian Colbergs in your system.

If you assume 33% success rate per 2nd rounder, the probability of getting 0 NHL players is 30%, the probability of getting 1 roster players is 44%, the probability of getting 2 roster players is 22%, and the probability of getting 3 roster players is 4%. I like those odds.

3) Rather than rush the development of Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, etc, to try and get some measly secondary production to "win now", let them dominate at the appropriate levels (OHL + 9 NHL games + WJC, AHL, AHL), it will pay off in the long-run.

4) Trade whatever veterans you don't need moving forward at the deadline for whatever you can get. You then get:
- A 50% probability of success per veteran that the draft picks returned will yield NHL roster players.
- An additional, independent, unknown probability that the cap space can be used on more useful players in the future.


It's true that you never know what you're going to get when you roll the dice. However, if you roll weighted dice on a very regular basis, you expect to win.

ETA: We have Markov, Plekanec, Subban, Gorges, Price, Pacioretty, Eller, Emelin as our core going forward. That's not a playoff team. However, if you add whoever succeeds out of Tinordi, Beaulieu, Holland, Pateryn, Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Kristo, Ellis, Colberg then we already have the components of a perpetual bubble team in our system. We'll be there in 2 years max in my opinion. I just suggest we add to that, to upgrade from bubble team status to contender status. The time to do it is now before Galchenyuk and Colberg and and before that impressive Hamilton Bulldogs contingent is already in the NHL.

ETA #2: To make things clearer:
Once Galchenyuk, Colberg, Tinordi, Beaulieu, etc are already in the NHL the rebuilding window will have closed. The magical time to rebuild is now.
I don't think those recruits, promising as they appear to be, will have much impact in the next 2 seasons. Assuming my estimate is reasonable, the likelihood that the Habs will escalate dramatically in that time frame is not great. Therefore, the window for drafting talented juniors and Europeans will not close for some time. In light of that, the need for an urgent overhaul is somewhat diminished.

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