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08-09-2012, 02:30 AM
  #21
seventieslord
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Second, the basis of it is said to be that both SV% and shooting % are "primarily luck-driven." Really? Maybe in the short term, but over any longer period, that's clearly false IMO. SV% is considered as or more important than any statistic for judging goalie performance by those that specialize in this. Shooting % isn't one of my favorite stats, but to say it's primarily luck-driven also doesn't seem correct IMO.
No, it's not necessarily luck-driven for the players doing the shooting and making the saves, but it does create a luck variable in +/- for everyone else on the ice. Goalie stands on his head for a shift, players who otherwise deserved a plus don't get one. Goalie lets in a stinker, players who didn't get a minus all get one, not to mention, the other team gets pluses they don't deserve.

PDO shows who was the beneficiary of more "puck luck" throughout the season. The swings between some players are surprising, and yes, they do appear to be fairly random. All other factors being equal, two players could have CORSIs on opposite ends of the spectrum but end up with the same +/- due to just PDO. One badly outperformed the other one but +/- doesn't catch it. CORSI does, and PDO explains the disconnect between CORSI and PDO. Their CORSI scores are very indicative of future performance, while the PDOs are random, so the player with the high CORSI is the much better bet going forward, when the luck starts to balance out or regress to the mean in the long term.

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