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08-09-2012, 02:26 PM
No Ben! No!
Join Date: Oct 2004
Hellooooo (la la la)
Just noticed this subforum, cool stuff.
I've always loved stats and I'm the type that probably enjoys reading about baseball stats more than actually watching the game haha. I've come to realize part of my joy for hockey is given it's free-flowing nature and almost impossible to control environment, I can simply watch the game and not have freaking numbers running through my head the entire time haha
My background... did economics for my undergrad and I'll be starting a master's in economics overseas in the fall, so any actual contribution I can make will probably be pretty limited, but I'll be sure to drop by occasionally and perhaps make some contributions/suggestions/etc.
1) I'm hardly the first to say so, but I'm very skeptical of most hockey stats given how uncontrollable the environment is compared to baseball. I haven't really done much analysis on my own as I tend to get frustrated by biased numbers and I'm not much of an excel jockey. However, if optical tracking is properly implement in hockey one day... oooooh boy.
2) I get a little annoyed by both sides of "regression to the mean" arguments. I'm generalizing, but adherents to regression may treat it as an actual law and try to shut down discussion accordingly, while detractors will characterize it as a law and then simply point to deviations to disprove it. It's generally just a rule of thumb that is heavily dependent on variation depending on the data at hand (this may be more of a baseball stats issue haha, but just saying)
3) If hockey stats could be controlled like baseball stats (maybe one day...), I'd be very tempted to say goodbye to my econ aspirations and take it up as my career haha
4) There seems to be a lot of debate over just how useful advanced hockey stats can be, with good reason. In general, I tend to think that while some advanced baseball stats may explain, say, 75% of a team/player's output, the very best hockey stats are probably in the 10-20% range with luck and intangibles playing a much larger part. Even if that is "low", I still think it's worthy exploring.
uh, ok, cool.
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