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08-09-2012, 02:44 PM
  #31
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mindmasher View Post
Sigh. You take a team measurement and then use it to logically conclude that Gretzky is lucky? Do you see the logical fallacy there?

The teams you picked have some of the best shot differentials over the past 5 seasons - a much better indicator of success - and also feature two of the most extreme examples of shooting percentage and save percentage outliers respectively: the Sedins and Tim Thomas.

Why don't you take a look at all 30 teams at once, like a true statistical analysis would. Maybe you would be surprised to find that on average teams regress to 1000.
Well if good teams tend to have consistently have high PDOs and bad ones tend to have consistently low ones, then I don't think it should be very revealing that "on average," they regress to the mean

Edit: if CYM's numbers are correct, that would seem to be what they are showing

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