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08-09-2012, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I see I missed an example on the linked site: 2011 Sharks. It says the Sharks were unlucky through Jan. 13 and post graphs to show how that was so. Interesting that Nittymaki (.896 overall SV%) played in 22/45 games through Jan. 13 and 2/37 after that, while Niemi (.920 overall SV%) took over in full after that. Whether Nittymaki was injured or the Sharks decided he was "unlucky", apparently this has no bearing on the matter? Good grief, if I can refute the best examples without even trying hard, how does one really take this seriously?
I'm not sure how this refutes anything? Just because there are some examples that show PDO values consistently in outlier regions does not logically lead to the conclusion the statistic is useless.

Generally speaking, teams with a high PDO are experiencing luck because it means their shooting and save percentage rates are in an unsustainable territory. This is not always the case, and certainly you would never take a look at PDO and exclaim 'aha, now I recognize all of the factors of luck that played into their success/failure'. Use it as an indicator that you need to look more closely at their underlying numbers.

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