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08-10-2012, 12:25 AM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by Iain Fyffe View Post
This is an issue with this kind of analysis. If the team does badly, this amount of rest means they're rusty. If they do well, it means they're well-rested and refreshed. So many of these explanations rely on the result. As a Habs fans, I hear the same thing about Carey Price all the time. When he's playing well, his calm demeanor is called an advantage - he keeps his cool and doesn't lose his head. When he's not, him calm demeanor is called a disadvantage - he needs to play with more fire to break out of his rut. The result cart is put before the explanation horse.
You're right, it's easy to try to explain after the fact. Still, I don't think Gagner's performance was close to being predictable or easily explainable. I was just trying to find anything out of the ordinary, and as I said it may have been a "minor factor." That game was in the middle of a 9 game losing streak by Chicago and in the middle of a time when they were giving up more goals than normal. That doesn't explain all of it, maybe just 10% or something, IDK.

In contrast, while Wilt's FT% in that game was significantly above his normal %, it wasn't nearly as improbable and more easily explainable. That was unusual game due to how close he was getting to 100 points. Also, 100 points for Wilt Chamberlain (and I know this wasn't directly used as an example of an outlier performance) could have been and actually was predicted to happen at some point (by Elgin Baylor at least).

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