Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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08-10-2012, 05:58 PM
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Edmonton, Alberta
There may have been something going on with Gagner that we don't know, even something seemingly irrelevant, that at least would help to explain such a performance a little more.
The thing I find interesting about Gagner's game is that for many of the goals, the play seemed to appear to be more of the "high skill" variety rather than "fortunate bounce" type. Granted, there's still elements of luck even in just finding yourself open to make a nice play.
Confidence is an interesting thing, and I would suspect that part of Gagner's good fortunes came from a desperate Blackhawks team that was not playing disciplined as well. Mistakes were made and Gagner was able to capitalize.
Could just be a perfect storm, but the random chance of something like that would be truly remarkable that I have a hard time believing it was just an exceptionally rare event.
And yes you're right that Wilt was better at FT% that season (which actually makes a huge difference in the probability).
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